As a lifelong soccer fan, watching international major international soccer events is a firm social event for my social network, family, friends and more. And while a German native, I am past any national perspectives on this and just want the better team to win!

I like sports team, enterprises work hard to reach the top and then stay in top in their respective markets. Germany was certainly on top, when it became world champion in convincing fashion in 2014 in Brazil. Back then the Mannschaft coach, Joachim, aka Jogi, Löw was seen as the coach who had really figured it out… but fast forward 4 years to the next world championship, he was the coach with the least successful German team, with Germany for the first time ever at a world championship, exiting in the group phase.

So here are some lessons learnt for enterprises

Not understanding the secret of your success. 

The enterprise lesson: CxOs need to know the real reason why they are successful. It does not matter what they are told from outsiders and insiders, but it is key to look at the key mechanics of the enterprise. Usually, the success factors are not the ones that are seen and perceived from the outside.

Bottom line: Know what works, what fails and why you succeed.

Assuming you are different than previous leaders.

Four world champions have been eliminated in the group stage in World cup history. Sure, 1966 Brazil may have been a fluke, but 2002 (France), 2010 (Italy) and 2014 (Spain) world champions got eliminated as well. So, for Löw does not taking any visible precautions in 2018, borders to gross negligence. At the same time, it is an oversight issue, but more on that below.

The enterprise lesson: Market rules may change, but the fundamental mechanics are always in place. Leaders get complacent, slow down to innovate, take lower risks, hang on to key personnel all the time.

Bottom line: At the top, there is not resting, but efforts need to be doubled…

Hanging on to the wrong tactics.

Löw is hanging on to his ‘False 9’ system till the end, with the expected lineup for Germany’s first European Championship game tomorrow listing Thomas Müller as 9 (the center forward). And Löw should know better: Whenever Germany fell behind on scoring or needed to score in the last tournaments (and Löw holds the record for a German national team falling behind on scoring by now) – he would begrudgingly bring a 9, a center forward, his favorite player being (the now retired) Gomez. Initially that worked, later it did not. Players were familiar with a 9 in their team. But when Gomez got injured, there was no backup for him (as he was the backup strategy anyway). At the 2020 European Championship (happening in 2021 due to Covid, right now), the fall back 9 is Volland. Now guess which player did not play any test matches. You know it, Volland, who is the most successful striker with a German passport in 2020 / 2021 league play with 16 in the French Ligue 1 (likely starters Müller / Gnabry scored 11 / 10 last season in the Bundesliga).

On the defensive side, traditional strong German defenses got soft. So, Löw started to play three center backs, even four in some qualifying games (ironically, they scored, underutilized, and unmarked in games as did Ginter and Ruediger). Now Löw seems to have settled with 3 center backs and 3 outside defenders, effectively playing a 5/2/3 – which looks nice as a 3/4/3 as most media will put it.

The enterprise lesson: When your fallback strategy is working and making you successful, then it is time to consider that the fallback strategy is the main strategy. It is easy to rationalize the need for the fallback strategy due to special events – and go back to the old main strategy… but if the patter repeats itself over 4-5 business cycles… it is time to change. And it is time to bring the right people and personnel in for the backup strategy.

Bottom line: Strategy needs to have the right degree of adoption and fluidity. And you must have the right talent for a dual strategy on board. If you do not have the management bench for the backup strategy, do not be surprised it will fail due to talent availability and capacity.

Bad and inconsistent personnel decisions.

Practice plays a role and Löw declared he will only consider players for the 2018 World Cup who have been playing the season before, having the necessary fitness. He did not say that he would have a special rule for goalie Neuer, who was injured all season, and still started. Though glossed over, that did not go down well… and for goalkeepers it is evident – you cannot just move players around like on the field (as Löw is doing with Kimmich right now….).

More recently Löw wanted to rejuvenate the team and sorted out world champions Boateng, Hummels and Müller. But before the Euro he reverted and Hummels and Müller are back. 

The enterprise lesson: Do what you say and say what you do. If you are public about something live up to it or explain why you changed it and move on. You can't revert aging. But be 100% sure when you trigger a transition. Reverting 2 years later like Löw is counter productive. Players now don't know if they have a longer term future and are part of it - or get replaced by veterans before a major event like Euro 2020. 

Bottom line: If you change key personnel, it either has to be reverted very quickly, or stick to it. 

Trying too many different strategies for the comeback.

Naturally fallen leaders want to adjust their strategies, so did Löw. Different defensive and midfield lineup were tested over and over but did not lead to the desired outcomes. And Löw never considered that he may have to change the ‘false 9’ setup. Now he goes into Euro 2020 with an attack system his players are not familiar: Even the ‘Bayern Block’ plays with a real number 9, a certain Lewandowski, yes, the player who was the best forward on earth if you believe the judges. And on the defensive side, Löw’s center backs play as couples, not triples and with 4 not 5 defenders… practically the only defensive player allowed to play his familiar club defensive setup is Atlanta’s Gossens. But wait, he has a true 9 on the field. What could possibly go wrong?

The enterprise lesson: Too many strategies can be confusing, and backfire. A supply chain strategy (e.g., defense) that does not match the demand strategy (e.g., attach), will overly strain people doing value creation (e.g., the midfield). It must also match talent and capacity of the people (e.g., players) executing it.

Bottom line: Strategy must work as one organic construct and be familiar to the talent and people executing it.

Lack of oversight and leadership.

The enterprise lesson: Strong oversight matters. May it be on the mentoring and coaching side, may it be at pulling the trigger and changing leadership. It also means taking responsibility for the personnel in place and the personnel changes. Strong boards with the proverbial skin in the game are crucial for enterprise success to last.

Bottom line: Oversight matters, strong board are a guarantor of success.

Getting the succession wrong.

By now it is clear that Löw will return after Euro 2020. So why does he do this tournament? He is the proverbial lame duck, and his successor (Flick) is even available. So, oversight is giving Löw what he wants, despite time pressure. World cup 2022 is in a year, Covid allowing.

But there is a Flick issue as well. He was Löw’s assistant in the glory days. And he looked like a genius 12 months ago when Bayern (his team then) won the German Championship, German Cup, and the Champions League… but turns out that Flick did not learn from the over dependence of great goal scorers (it was Müller and Klose, scroll up) – and now it was Lewandowski. When Lewandowski got injured, Bayern missed out on two titles, going down to one. It was clear Flick had no system, no alternatives to Lewandowski, and was just riding the wave, as Löw and he did in 2014. Worse, a club coach has his team around almost all year to develop a tactic system, rotate players (yes, they have ups and downs, and yes, they get injured. And that at one of the richest and wealthiest teams in club soccer, Bayern. If Flick did not catch the root cause of the post 2014 debacle, he repeated the mistake again at Bayern. How does that qualify him to be the next Bundestrainer?

Finally – the excuse for keeping Löw in place was always – there are no good German (!) coaches available. Klopp at Liverpool, Tuchel now at Chelsea, Flick at Bayern – oh wait… In the meantime – DFB Leadership failed to realize that the national coach does not have to have the national passport as the players have to…  and nation ranked #1 – Belgium – Martinez is… Spanish.

The enterprise lesson: Executive changes are tricky… in enterprises as in national soccer teams. But before you put the next person in charge, understand why you are replacing the current leader. If the new one was the understudy, left and failed for the same reasons, why would you put the understudy in charge?

Bottom line: When the natural succession moment is gone, it is gone. Do not bring the understudies back. Study the competition. Look at a wide talent pool.

MyPOV

Soccer / Football is an unpredictable game. A bigger portion of luck is typically involved as in higher scoring team sports (think basketball, handball, volleyball etc.). I have been concerned about Löw’s tactics since a long time (see here) – Euro 2020 gave me the event to get this blog out. It is well possible that Löw turns the ship around and Germany beats world champion France tomorrow. “Der Ball ist rund” as longest tenured Bundestrainer, Sepp Herberger said once upon a time. And while the fate of Die Mannschaft may be better, the lessons learnt for enterprises … remain valid.

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