After using the format for the HCM 2014 highlights, I will re-use the same for the cloud and next generation Applications in this post: So basically I revisited my blog posts of 2014 and determined which event in each month had the most impact, was the most important event one. One thing that became clear is that some months – January, February, July, August and December are slower months – so less to choose from – and March, April, May, September, October and November are more on the busy side. And of course it is to a certain point biased as I can only cover so much in a year.
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So here we go:
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Until January the major cloud competitors moved more or less in lockstep mode, European data center, Australian data center, China data center etc. were all milestones that across AWS, Google, Microsoft and IBM were achieving only a few months apart. But when IBM announced in January that it planned to roll out its cloud infrastructure to 40 locations in the next 24 months – that move remained un countered. And as we know throughout 2014 IBM rolled out a number of locations, and even raised the location target to 48 by end of 2014. Locations matter for cloud for two main reasons – one being compliance with legal and statutory requirements and the other for pure performance reasons. Anyone who has tried to access a server in the northern hemisphere from the southern hemisphere knows about this. So a good move by IBM as it gives the vendor a lead over other cloud vendors in some of the markets, key time for IBM to use its good ties to the enterprise and secure load to the IBM cloud. Load is the key that IBM needs when compared with AWS, Google, Microsoft who have considerate consumer load, and Oracle, SAP and Salesforce.com who have considerate B2B load either as real or potential load they need to tackle. It will be interesting to see in 2015 how IBM can capitalize on that lead. My blog post can be found here.
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February was a relatively slow month and at the risk of being boring, the most important event went to IBM again, with the launch of its PaaS platform, BlueMix. A key event for the creation of next generation applications, where there is now a well-known vendor in the enterprise to rely on. Remarkable is also that IBM, contrary to tradition, is leveraging / OEMing Pivotal’s CloudFoundry as the platform for BlueMix. When a proven technology vendor like IBM uses an open source based platform it shows the complete turnaround we have seen in software platform development, starting from proprietary platforms and today arriving at large, community driven open source projects. But IBM did not rest here but put significant investment into the platform that stands and falls in the enterprise by providing attractive services while maintaining the IBM commitment to safety and reliability. And IBM also realized that BlueMix, next to its SaaS portfolio and Watson, is the largest driver it has under control to get critical load onto the SoftLayer powered IBM cloud. At the end of 2014 it is safe to say that this was a bold move by IBM that is starting to pay off both in mindshare with traditional enterprise customers as well as more dynamic startups and developer communities focusing the enterprise. How well IBM Cloud can still attract born on the web startups, like e.g. their banner reference WhatsApp, will be an area to watch in 2015.
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And in March things got busier, and it was a tie for the most important news coming from Google and Oracle:
Google’s cloud event was a key event in March and probably for all of 2014... While there was some speculation back in 2013 that there may be a two tier pricing in the cloud, a basic consumer one (dominated by AWS) and higher end enterprise one (still up for grabs) and the money was on Google to use its very high end infrastructure for the latter. Well that thought is now history, as with this Clear busy by Google in the race referred to as the ‘race to nothing’ in cloud, by basically giving away the Moore’s Law cost savings early in the year, and not at the end of the year or 12 month period. This mixed calculation created havoc for many cloud providers, but was also the death nail for most private cloud (or at least a temporary hold from which the projects have not recovered). And so far price leader AWS did not respond, at least right away. And Microsoft changed their price guarantee from the AWS price match to lowest major provider price match. So kudos goes to Google for boldly going after more enterprise load and resetting the cloud cost curve, effectively giving the IT world a one (or so) year fast forward on the cost curve. If Google will repeat this in 2015 – which is widely expected – and key competitors will more or less match that move, then we will see much, much more public cloud adoption in 2015. Barring more security fiascos and NSA type concerns. Investing into private cloud will be very, very hard. But let’s wait and see. Read the blog post here.
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For the first time Oracle gave a more detailed insight into its cloud plans to a select group of analysts in March. And while much of the briefings where under NDA, it’s clear that Oracle in 2014 really ‘gets’ cloud and is massively investing into its cloud capabilities. What was new was the positioning of a forth service dimension, Data as a Service (DaaS), next to the traditional IaaS, PaaS and SaaS. With the recent acquisition of Datalogix (more here) it is clear that Oracle does not see DaaS as a pure platform capability, but as synergetic play between DaaS and SaaS, which gives more flexibility to licensing models as well as creates a new level of stickiness for enterprise applications. The Oracle vision of the integrated technology stack, from the chip all the way to the end user application remains very compelling, 2015 will be a key year where Oracle will have to show similar success in IaaS and PaaS as it has shown in SaaS. How much re-platforming of the older SaaS products on the newer IaaS and PaaS offerings will require, is a key development to watch closely in 2015. Read my blog post here.
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Honorable mention: Cisco launches its Intercloud. It was about time for the networking giant to go public on its cloud plans, and a network centric, collaboration focused cloud (using Cisco’s WebEx assets) certainly has compelling value for the enterprise. On the flipside a partner approach (see e.g. also HP) always faces challenges on the SLA, build out and consistency side. And overall Cisco’s efforts – aside from the acquisition of MetaCloud (read here) has gone more or less quiet. Cisco will have to redouble its efforts in 2015 if it want to play in the cloud game, and e.g. address how developers can build next generation (and e.g. network centric) applications in 2015. Read my blog post here.
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The most important event for me in April was Microsoft’s Build conference and the related developments both for cloud and next generation apps. Azure made massive progress, on the location and services side, but most of the key news were on the next gen apps side. In a surprise move Microsoft said it will create an open source style community for .NET and open source the .NET Compiler Platform "Rosslyn". The Universal Apps are a key tool for developers on Microsoft platforms. Opening of Office APIs enables a whole set of new, next generation applications. And advances to Windows Mobile as well as commitments to support iOS and Android were well received by the developer community. Read my blog post here.
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In May HP threw its hat into the cloud ring – announcing HP Helion. HP has key software assets that could make the building of next generation applications on Helion (very) attractive. And HP understand the enterprise well, its indemnification clause on the open source code side and the mature service levels will help putting some concerns on cloud and open source to rest – even in the most conservative enterprise. The later in the year addition of Eucalyptus and with that Marten Mickos as cloud leader make HP a cloud vendor to watch in 2015 (more here). HP’s challenge, even more drastic than IBM’s is that it does not have load available both from a real and potential load perspective like AWS, Google, Microsoft and Oracle. Read my blog post here.
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In June things tend to slow down, but the key event for me was MongoDB’s user conference in New York City. We see most next generation apps project including key database and data storage components. The interest that MongoDB has garnered in the enterprise was impressive to see. What helps MongoDB is that some of these new software development projects need to leverage NoSQL and BigData and with that play into MongoDB’s hands. 2015 will be key to see if MongoDB can monetize the many promising partnerships it has setup back in 2014. Read my blog post here.
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In the usual quiet month of July SAP surprised us with a clear endorsement of open source – both with CloudFoundry and OpenStack. And while it remains still a little bit hazy what SAP is doing with CloudFoundry (we hear that hybris is building its next generation platform on CloudFoundry) the usage of OpenStack is pretty straight forward. Few enterprise vendors have such a diverse SaaS stack to manage like SAP. With new acquisitions coming in, the latest being Concur (read more here) and more likely to come, SAP needs a flexible way to manage its diverse cloud infrastructure and that makes SAP a perfect showcase for OpenStack. But the overall general data point is that (even) SAP embraces open source (anyone remember the SAP JVM?), another testament of the power of community based development and at the same time its acceptance in the enterprise world in 201x. Read my blog post here.
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As we saw Cisco and HP getting formally into the cloud game, there was the realistic expectation that VMware would do the same at VMWorld. And hybrid cloud was more prominent than ever at VMWorld, but VMware still seems not to be ready to enable its on premise customers to aggressively move to the cloud. By now it’s clear that it’s not short term revenue generation that hinders VMware, but the realization that VMware needs to offer more than bare metal to escape and stay above the commoditization game. The solution is an attractive PaaS platform for their customers to build next generation applications. But that PaaS offering still needs to be created, and VMware teams are working hard to make that real in 2015, that will be key to watch. VMware remains uniquely positioned for this as no vendor understand the on premise load of enterprises better than VMware. It is about to get time where VMware needs to put that knowledge into cloud revenue. Read my blog post here.
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When it comes to next generation applications, it is clear that these will not exist in a vacuum only, but will have to ‘play ball’ nicely with the existing enterprise applications. Which brings us to SAP and its long and thorny path to a PaaS message. So the key event for September was that SAP got not only the messaging right around the HANA Cloud Platform (HCP) but also addressed a number of issues that were holding it back previously. With key changes to the purpose, improved platform capabilities and improved licensing, HCP becomes an attractive platform for next generation applications in the enterprise. But a good start does not even guarantee a good intermediate position during a race and SAP will have to keep stretching to keep HCP an attractive platform in 2015. Read my blog post here.
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As if the situation of VMware was equally clear to Oracle executives, the main messaging at Oracle OpenWorld was… PaaS. Oracle understands very well that it needs a strong PaaS layer to stay away from the bare metal price game. And with the Oracle Database, Java and MySQL it has attractive products developers need to build next generation applications. Oracle also made key advancements on the database side, releasing Oracle Database In-Memory, which opens attractive hybrid next generation application scenarios for traditional database and in memory usage. With the co-existence with Hadoop style DBs, Oracle has achieved very good viability for its existing customers for next generation applications. How well Oracle can attract non Oracle shops in 2015 will be a key metric to watch. Equally on the Application Server side, Oracle has done a number of key additions that add to the attractiveness of the overall Oracle platform. The challenge for Oracle will be to get all things done in time, at a good quality and above the attractiveness gate keeper that is needed for new products. And while the team around Kurian is certain to pull this off in 2015 – it remains a herculean task. But there is no alternative for Oracle, the execution speed and quality will be key to monitor in 2015. Read my blog post here.
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Honorable mention: Salesforce.com had its Dreamforce event in San Francisco, and its Salesforce1 platform is making good progress. And while the new ‘analytics’ with Wave are not ‘true’ analytics yet (read here for my definition), they address a long term reporting attractiveness issue. Mobile enhancements as well as PaaS enhancements were well received. Overall Salesforce.com understands very well that its future cannot only be SaaS but has to have an attractive PaaS components. From the traditional enterprise vendors Salesforce.com is doing probably the best job in developer outreach and engagement. And it will have to keep doing this, as its platform does not necessarily come to mind as the first option for building a next generation application, if outside of the enterprise space. But inside the enterprise space, extending Salesforce.com applications or building database centric, enterprise scale applications, that’s where Salesforce.com’s platform sweet spot is and it will be interesting to see how the market dynamics vs. other vendors with similar positioning (IBM, Oracle, SAP and maybe even Workday) will play out in 2015. Read my blog post here.
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And November prove to be a busy months, the key event was the AWS re: Invent conference. AWS for the first time gave key insights into how it builds, operates and maintains its infrastructure, a key step for overcoming the black box image that AWS previously had. For enterprises to build the comfort level to put data into the public cloud they want more certainty that derives from tangibility and elimination of ‘magic’. Magic that is understood is great, magic that is uncertain created concerns. AWS has done a great job addressing this. On the product side both Aurora and lambda are key announcements for next generation applications. Aurora will mean the end of a lot of (bad) sharding code that is out there and not needed. And lambda is an intriguing capability to address BAM and CEP style applications, without having to rig up the infrastructure for it. And both are more PaaS like offerings that are key for AWS, as in the next 2-3 year it will have to compete with vendors that has platforms already – like IBM, Microsoft and Oracle. While 2013 was more on the SaaS side with Workspaces and 2014 added Amazon Zocalo – it is clear that AWS has realized that it needs to add attractive PaaS and productivity applications to its portfolio to generate load for its IaaS infrastructure. What moves AWS will be doing in this regard will be key to watch in 2015. Read my blog post here.
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In 2015 technology leaders will need to create, adjust and implement their public cloud strategy. Considering estimates pegging Amazon AWS at 15-20% of virtualized servers worldwide, CIOs and CTOs need to actively plan and execute their enterprise’s strategy vis-à-vis the public cloud. Reducing technical debt and establishing next generation best practices to leverage the new ‘on demand’ IT paradigm should be a top priority for CIOs and CTOs seeking organizational competitiveness, greater job security and fewer budget restrictions.
What were your 2014 Cloud and Next Generation Application takeaways?
So here we go:
January - IBM
February - IBM
March - Google & Oracle
And in March things got busier, and it was a tie for the most important news coming from Google and Oracle:Google’s cloud event was a key event in March and probably for all of 2014... While there was some speculation back in 2013 that there may be a two tier pricing in the cloud, a basic consumer one (dominated by AWS) and higher end enterprise one (still up for grabs) and the money was on Google to use its very high end infrastructure for the latter. Well that thought is now history, as with this Clear busy by Google in the race referred to as the ‘race to nothing’ in cloud, by basically giving away the Moore’s Law cost savings early in the year, and not at the end of the year or 12 month period. This mixed calculation created havoc for many cloud providers, but was also the death nail for most private cloud (or at least a temporary hold from which the projects have not recovered). And so far price leader AWS did not respond, at least right away. And Microsoft changed their price guarantee from the AWS price match to lowest major provider price match. So kudos goes to Google for boldly going after more enterprise load and resetting the cloud cost curve, effectively giving the IT world a one (or so) year fast forward on the cost curve. If Google will repeat this in 2015 – which is widely expected – and key competitors will more or less match that move, then we will see much, much more public cloud adoption in 2015. Barring more security fiascos and NSA type concerns. Investing into private cloud will be very, very hard. But let’s wait and see. Read the blog post here.
April - Microsoft
May - HP
June - MongoDB
July - SAP
August - VMware
September - SAP
October - Oracle
Honorable mention: Salesforce.com had its Dreamforce event in San Francisco, and its Salesforce1 platform is making good progress. And while the new ‘analytics’ with Wave are not ‘true’ analytics yet (read here for my definition), they address a long term reporting attractiveness issue. Mobile enhancements as well as PaaS enhancements were well received. Overall Salesforce.com understands very well that its future cannot only be SaaS but has to have an attractive PaaS components. From the traditional enterprise vendors Salesforce.com is doing probably the best job in developer outreach and engagement. And it will have to keep doing this, as its platform does not necessarily come to mind as the first option for building a next generation application, if outside of the enterprise space. But inside the enterprise space, extending Salesforce.com applications or building database centric, enterprise scale applications, that’s where Salesforce.com’s platform sweet spot is and it will be interesting to see how the market dynamics vs. other vendors with similar positioning (IBM, Oracle, SAP and maybe even Workday) will play out in 2015. Read my blog post here.
November - AWS
December - Constellation
A quiet month – and so I offer my 2015 prediction from our team post:
MyPOV
A lot of exciting progress in both cloud and next generation application offerings in 2014. With richer cloud offerings that de-emphasize IaaS and bring more PaaS in the forground we see good developments for enterprises to build modern applications in the cloud even more in 2015 than ever before. And it will become widely accepted best practice that next generation applications will be built in the cloud and no where else. And cloud is equally the enabler of key business trends as globalization and digital transformation.What were your 2014 Cloud and Next Generation Application takeaways?